On-Demand Webinar: Hydrologic Hazards – Estimating Probabilities of Extreme Floods
Association of State Dam Safety Officials, 2016
Hydrologic hazard curves are critical flood loading inputs for dam and levee safety risk assessments. Over the past decade, some federal agencies have developed and applied new tools and data sets to estimate hydrologic hazard curves, which are graphs of peak flows, volume, or reservoir stages versus Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP). Hydrologic hazard curves provide a full probability distribution for the flood hazard, covering the range of extreme flood probabilities with uncertainty with AEPs typically to 1/100,000, and relevant for assessing hydrologic failure modes. Streamflow-based statistical methods and Monte-Carlo rainfall-runoff methods are the main approaches used to estimate hydrologic hazards. This webinar provides an overview and background on current data and methods used in estimating hydrologic hazard curves for dam and levee safety. Participants will gain an understanding of: hydrologic hazard curves for dam and levee safety risk analysis, extreme storm, flood, and paleoflood data sets for hydrologic hazard curves; hydrologic hazard methods currently in use by USACE and other federal agencies for dam safety risk analysis; the philosophy and approach used to integrate meteorology, flood hydrology and paleoflood hydrology to estimate hydrologic hazard curves with uncertainty; and ongoing activities and future directions in estimating hydrologic hazard curves.
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Speaker(s): John F. England
Revision ID: 2273
Revision Date: 08/19/2022